Happy New League Year!
The first wave of free agency keeps getting more and more fun with each passing year. With the salary cap now surpassing $255 million, we’ve already seen big-money contracts across many positions, a run on running backs and a reshuffling of the safety deck. The top of the guard market has proven to be pricey, while wide receiver salaries continue to explode.
As for the game’s most important position? Well, we still don’t know what will happen with Justin Fields, but the quarterback carousel spun Kirk Cousins to Atlanta and Russell Wilson to Pittsburgh, while notably creating a number of opportunities for backups with starting potential (SEE: Sam Darnold to the Vikings, Gardner Minshew to the Raiders and Jacoby Brissett back to the Patriots). Coming off a season that saw a whopping 66 different starters under center, NFL teams are wise to value the entire QB room.
After the initial frenzy, I took a look at all of the early developments through the lens of contextual production data and forward-looking projections, factoring in reported contract values. In order to rate each acquisition, I considered the involved player’s past on-field résumé and his new team’s current roster/coaching philosophy, then compared these parameters and contract values to other players at the same position.
Taking all of that into account, here are three moves with the highest potential return on investment — and three that appear quite suspect at first blush.
NOTE: Positional contract rankings below are pulled from Over The Cap.